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How much variance do general BWers create?

1st board of a matchpoint game, the field is decent and your pair is above average.

You are in a normal 4S contract. Opponent puts you in a guess at Trick 3. The defense is normal to find. Assuming no significant extra info so that finesse is 50%. The switch is a middleish card such that you cannot read.

If you finesse you go down 2 or make. If you fly A you are always -1.

What do you do?

 

(Polling this, because I want to make future decisions based on this poll result)

Go big or go home
Take my -1
Other, because there is always an other

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