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All comments by Craig Biddle
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E has the wrong minor, and the KQ likely behind the ace. Why should he risk the 3-level on 9xxxx at unfavorable vulnerability. The LAW doesn't guarantee that a 9 card fit isn't off 3 sure trump tricks (or 4 on Halloween).
an hour ago
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Many good points in Gavin's article.
6 hours ago
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I don't know about him, but I would expect my partner to have something like void Jxxxxx xx Kxxxx for this auction. This is too weak for a 1st seat vul weak 2 and rates to be easy to describe if you pass initially.
9 hours ago
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Bidding often in direct seat is good. They are not in a great position to penalize you. And even a little nudge can usually prevent opener from revealing vital pattern information.

It's probably right to play 2 natural but that is one of the few overcalls that they CAN punish effectively. e.g. (1)-2-(X) for takeout and any time opener has real diamonds he has you. They are less likely to be able to punish a 2 overcall since most pairs can have 6 but not 6 for their 1 opening, and a 2 overcall REALLY gets in their way.

Using X as all balanced opening hands and 1NT as Raptor has merit - it increases your chances of catching them for a number when responder is busted. And you are going to have the Raptor hand type often, especially when they have a fit in the other major.

You're going to suffer when you have a diamond fit. There's not much you can do about that, especially when it's 4th seat with the long diamonds.
12 hours ago
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“Shell Game” by Jeff Rubens, Bridge World, Dec.1972

What do you do at trick 1?

K 9 5
8 6 5 3 2
A 10 8 4
Q

A 8 4 2
A K Q 4
void
A J 10 4 3

Contract 7
Opening lead: K

1. If you duck the first trick in dummy and ruff in hand, West might hold Q76 10 KQ6532 965

2. If you win the A and discard a club, then risk the club finesse, West might hold Q1076 10 KQ65 9652

3. If you win the A and discard a spade, then risk the club finesse, West might hold Q103 10 KQ65 97652

But all of the other possible plays to trick 1 work against both other possible West hands. Enjoy the analysis, some of them are quite complex!
Jan. 14
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Agreed.
Jan. 14
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Really? Is 4 forcing here?
Jan. 13
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A good friend pointed out the best bid here. I should have bid 7 here, partner would have bid 7 and there we would have rested.
Jan. 13
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This is a gloating-free forum.

I have never seen the point of SCUDA either. Could you please enlighten us with a brief article Michael R?

(2nd edit) Oh, of course, it gets the troublesome Qxx/xx right when partner leads from AK. Duh!
Jan. 12
Craig Biddle edited this comment Jan. 12
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If this is truly my hand, and partner also has a 5-card minor and 4-card major and enough to bid, I surely want to get out to our minor. Of course, if partner's minor is diamonds, and they can lead ace and a trump, we could be going down 3 since it sounds like partner will have at most an 11-count.

So I bid 2 to get out in his minor. -560 is just a disaster at any form of scoring, and I think the odds of partner having the A are much less than 50-50. I also think the odds of partner's minor being clubs are minuscule.
Jan. 12
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It looks like you need to believe that 40% of the field will be in 3NT in order to justify the “safe” line. Otherwise, it's just a shootout among the declarers in 4.

Also, with regard to the bidding, I think that E hand is too strong for 1NT. If your partner opened 1 because he shares that opinion, doesn't a 2NT rebid by him describe his hand to a “T”? On that auction, I think you're very unlikely to get a spade lead.

If enough of your field agrees with me, then the “safe” line seems best - maximizing your expectations whether or not the 3NT declarers get a spade lead.
Jan. 12
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Also 2-2, 2-3 is natural and invitational.
Jan. 11
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Mightn't 6 here show maximum hearts? On the actual deal, you would rather be in 7 than 7 since THAT was the jack that partner had, and he was 6-3-2-2. He had AQ10xxx KJx xx Qx. And the J was 4th.

Ah, well, we had great fun in the 3rd/4th match, and the team we lost to in the semis got blown out in the final.

And even after this, we had 2 chances to win the match. But partner went astray in what I thought was a simple defensive problem against a doubled game, and then we took an expensive phantom.
Jan. 11
Craig Biddle edited this comment Jan. 11
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Too many bids spoil the broth. I worked out the math above before bidding 4NT. Then I considered bidding 4 but decided to just shoot it out. After all, if partner now bids 4 to show the K, how is he to know that my 4NT is for spades? Mightn't I not have been dealt void AJ10xx AKxxxx Ax?
Jan. 11
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We are dumb? Is that a sufficient answer?

There was a post on here some time ago dealing with just that issue. I don't remember the resolution.
Jan. 11
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It's not really a guess. If partner has 6 to the AQ, then he will have the:

J10 about 13% of the time, and the grand slam is virtually cold
J without the 10 about 27% of the time and 7 is about 84%
10 without the Jack about 27% of the time and 7 is about 52%
No J or 10 about 33% of the time and 7 is 36%.

.13 x 1 is .13
.27 x .84 = .23
.27 x .52 = .14
.33 x .36 = .12

Total chance is 62%.
Jan. 11
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I don't want to say never, but you have to be very, very sure to do so. Your IMP odds here are about 10:1, and there aren't many situations in bridge where you can be that certain.
Jan. 11
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In Maine? :)
Jan. 11
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A strong player and good friend related this story to me yesterday. He claims to have had the following auction many years ago:

(2)-6NT-(X)-7
(Pass)-Pass-7

The opening lead was a small heart, and declarer chided the 6NT bidder for not doubling for the lead. The 6NT bidder, my friend, replied, “I don't have any trumps either.”
Jan. 11
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If the diamond finesse loses (50%) I don't see a ie of the cards tat allows you to make it.
Jan. 10
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